NFL

WS Power Rankings

Week 6 — blending real 2026 results with each team's 2025-based prior.

Model record: 50-28 straight up · Brier 0.23

WS #	Team	OVR	OFF	DEF	Record
1	Jaguars	95	85	99	4-1
2	49ers	94	93	88	5-0
3	Patriots	89	77	98	3-2
4	Chiefs	89	86	87	4-0
5	Vikings	87	73	99	5-0
6	Seahawks	87	85	84	3-2
7	Bills	86	99	69	4-1
8	Bears	84	82	83	3-2
9	Rams	82	82	80	2-3
10	Bengals	82	87	75	3-2
11	Ravens	80	85	75	4-1
12	Lions	80	93	69	3-2
13	Broncos	80	75	85	3-2
14	Panthers	80	87	73	2-2
15	Steelers	79	76	82	3-2
16	Texans	77	71	87	1-4
17	Packers	76	76	77	3-2
18	Falcons	76	76	77	2-3
19	Colts	75	83	71	2-3
20	Buccaneers	75	72	79	1-4
21	Cowboys	75	87	67	2-3
22	Raiders	75	82	70	3-2
23	Browns	73	70	79	3-2
24	Eagles	73	70	80	2-3
25	Jets	73	68	82	2-3
26	Giants	72	69	78	3-1-1
27	Saints	71	76	69	1-4
28	Commanders	68	74	67	1-3-1
29	Chargers	68	64	77	0-5
30	Dolphins	68	65	75	0-5
31	Cardinals	66	75	64	1-4
32	Titans	64	62	75	0-5

Calibration

When we say a team has a 70% chance to win, does that actually happen close to 70% of the time? Every graded NFL game this season, sorted by how confident we were.

WS said	Happened	Games
50-55%	50%	14 (low)
55-60%	73%	11 (low)
60-65%	50%	8 (low)
65-70%	59%	17 (low)
70-75%	78%	9 (low)
75-80%	63%	8 (low)
80-85%	67%	3 (low)
85-90%	100%	3 (low)
90-95%	75%	4 (low)
95-100%	100%	1 (low)

Rows marked "low" have fewer than 30 games — read those as a preview, not a verdict.

This is a straight-up accuracy check, not a betting record — there is no NFL closing line in this pipeline, so unlike the CFB page, there is no "disagreement with Vegas" number here at all, not even an insufficient one.

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